The Road to the 2018 Midterm Elections

Published on: 05 Nov, 2018

America stands before a historic Midterm election on November 6th. With Democratic candidates polling strongly in deep-red states like Texas, Georgia, and Arizona, many pollsters are predicting a blue wave to sweep the elections. Today, it’s not a question, Americans are divided on every social and economic issue ranging from healthcare to tax reform. Party tribalism is reaching historic heights as Republican candidates play to their base by stoking fears of immigration, and Democratic candidates run on a platform of preserving healthcare. Though history shows that the President’s party usually loses seats in the House and Senate during the midterm elections - this is due to the lower turn-outs and the fact that the opposition’s voters are energized by losing the National Election - since President Roosevelt, the President’s party has only gained seats in both Houses twice. In the 1934 Midterms under Franklin D. Roosevelt, and 2002 under George W. Bush. However, these midterm elections are different because we are seeing Democratic candidates polling strongly in deep-red states like Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee. How America got to this point of shifting geopolitics and rising polarization is a cumulation of factors which predate the 2016 election, but the symptoms have only become visible.        

Between the campaign messages of Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders, key distinctions can be observed. While Sanders and Trump delivered a galvanizing message of populism and economic anxiety of the lower half of the middle class, it was the failure of the Clinton campaign to address these concerns that ultimately led to her demise. Analyzing the message of each candidate, Hillary failed to create a resonating message. Slogans like “I’m with her,” and “Stronger together,” did not address the fact that between 1973 and 2013, the hourly wages of the middle-wage workers had risen by only 6%. The wages of high-wage workers within the same time period had risen by 41%[1]. In comparison, Bernie’s slogans of “Enough Is Enough,”
Not me. Us.” and “A Political Revolution Is Coming," had the ability to channel the frustration of the working class. In the past 40-years, middle-income earners have seen their wages remain stagnant. Ultimately, the epitome of this social anxiety was embodied by the Trump Campaign slogan; “Make America Great Again.” The slogan drew on the nostalgic memories of older, white, middle-class Americans without a college education, who relied on mining and manufacturing jobs. Between 1980 and 2010, there has been a significant fall in the number of mining jobs by 40%[2]. While manufacturing employment levels have fallen by 40.5%[3] within the same timeframe.

The key difference between the populism of Sanders and Trump was a racial aspect. Sanders’ populism focused on the plight of the average American workers who lost their jobs as the economy shifted; while Trump narrowed the scope to focus on white, non-college educated, blue-collar Americans and played on their fears of being culturally displaced. A study by Dian Mutz, a political science and communications professor at the University of Pennsylvania, found that Trump appealed strongest to white, Christian, and male voters. She found that Trump's base was motivated by a fear of cultural displacement. Her study found that losing a job between 2012 to 2016 or the perception of a financially worse situation did not make a person more likely to support Trump. That having been said, the popularity of Sanders and Trumps showed that America was already divided not only by class but by race. Moreover, Hilary failed to comprehend the growing resentment of globalization felt by many in the working class. According to the Economic Policy Institute[4], the rise of globalization led to the loss of 3.2 million manufacturing jobs in the U.S. between 2001 – 2013 to China. Likewise, they found that by trading with emerging markets, full-time workers without a college degree saw a reduction in their wages by 5.5%.  By accusing China of currency manipulation, and by criticizing NAFTA and NATO; Trump was able to tap into the negative emotions through his America 1st Agenda.

How this played into the growing division is that we must remember those on the other side of the argument, the advocates for globalization. A study by the Brooking Institute, a nonprofit public policy organization think-tank, found that between 1990 and 2010 the rate of economic convergence between American states had fallen significantly. The Brooking Institution also found that as productivity in metropolitan areas rose; middle-income cities which relied heavily on manufacturing and mining struggled to keep up. To further illustrate this, a report by the OECD found that the average productivity gap between the 10% of the most productive regions and the bottom 75% widened by nearly 60% over the past 20 years within its richest member countries. As a result, richer metropolitan areas like New York City pulled further away from places like Scranton, and South Carolina which voted heavily for Donald Trump.

Nevertheless, with the economy reporting near full employment at 60.6% and the Dow reporting record earnings, a blue wave should be viewed as a possibility, not a certainty. A blue way directly contradicts what has been a political campaigns’ doctrine for the past three decades. The economy should be the focus of any political campaign. With the economy flourishing and Republicans in control of the White House and both Houses of Congress, it’s a surprise the economy is not the main talking point for Republican candidates. The irony here is that the economy, which took center stage previously, has now taken a back seat to immigration to rally the Republican base. To illustrate this, Republican candidates like Martha McSally of Arizona, Ron DeSantis of Florida, and Ted Cruz of Texas are unified in campaigning on a stronger southern border. While on the other hand, Democratic candidates like Beto O'Rourke of Texas, Stacey Abrams of Georgia, and Andrew Gillum of Florida are a campaign on the issues of Healthcare, education and, the environment.

With republics favoring stronger borders and tighter immigration policy, Democrats view immigration as a lesser  problem that needs to be solved.   However, a 2018 Gallup poll conducted between June 1st and 13th found that 75% of Americans favor immigration, while even 65% of Republican-leaning independents view immigration positively. With American largely viewing immigration in favorable terms it is surprising how the topic of immigration can cause division. The trigger is when the phrase “illegal immigration” is used.  Harvard-Harris poll found that 70% of Americans feel a need for stricter immigration laws. While 61% of Americans feel that that illegal immigrants and their children should be deported.  Though it can be argued that there has always been a growing level of cultural anxiety, the President’s focus on immigration reform has led to a sharp increase in the levels of cultural anxiety. As he wrote in a tweet that “many gang members and some very bad people are mixed into the Caravan heading to our Southern Border.”

Such rhetoric is used to rally the conservative base to the election booths this midterm election. In contrast, Democratic candidates are using another fear-based tactic to motivate their base.  These midterm Democratic candidates are sticking to the talking points of healthcare, and the Trump tax cuts.  Democrats are arguing that if Republicans keep the House, they will repeal the mandate in the Affordable Care Act which disallows insurance companies from denying coverage to someone with a pre-existing condition. In regard to the GOP Tax breaks, Democrats are campaigning under the current tax reform, a study by the Tax Policy Centre has found that the top 1% of American earners will receive 60% of the total tax cuts. What this has created is a situation where both political parties are playing to the fears of their base; leading to a situation of growing partisanship. Results from the Pew Research Centre found that in 2016 over 50% of members in the Democratic and Republican party view members of the opposing party as “very unfavorable” for the first time in over 20 years.  Moreover, the Directory of the political research for Pew is on record saying that there has been a sharp increase in the intensity of negativity.

Again, to blame this solely on the Trump Presidency would be a misrepresentation of the facts. Though data from the Pew research only dates back to 1992, data from the National Election Study does show a steady rise in the levels of partisan negativity. A study by the University of Northern Iowa found in 2016 that "attributes of social media, particularly the ability it gives users to surround themselves with information they already agree with, and filter out information they disagree with, is a likely contributor to political polarization" in the U.S. Moreover, research by Matthew Levendusky, a professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, found that political television aimed at a certain audience also contributes to the growing polarization levels by shifting those who are already at the extremes ends of the political spectrum further away from the center. As Amy Chua writes in Political Tribes (2018): “The Left believes that right-wing tribalism [of] bigotry [and] racism is tearing the country apart. [While] The Right believes that left-wing tribalism [of] identity politics [and] political correctness is tearing the country apart.” That is not to say that the left does not engage in such practices, to argue that they are not equally complicit would be false. Armed with this, it is easy to see the divide being created by the President’s dehumanizing rhetoric against minority groups. Such rhetoric, which is then magnified and echoed by right-wing media organizations, solely speaks to those operating on the extreme right and alienating those in the center and left; creating greater divisions in U.S. politics.

The #Metoo Movement has also added to the division in the nation. With women worldwide rallying together to say no unwanted sexual advances and harassment in the workplace; it is not surprising the movement is divisive, but it is disheartening. The movement began soon after the sexual assault allegations where brought up against Harvey Weinstein in October of 2017. It is important to make it clear at this point that I am not advocating or implying that the principals of #Metoo are divisive. However, what I am arguing is the politicization of the movement has led to greater division. The politicization of the Kavanaugh hearings has led to the political consequence of many young women viewing the Republican establishment as once again choosing to side against the victim. Meanwhile, Trump used this as a rallying cry to move his conservative base to vote this midterm election, portraying the left as an “out-of-control angry mob”.

As a result, the Kavanaugh hearings have further divided the nation along gender lines. With the Quinnipiac University poll reporting roughly 60% of women are leaning towards the Democratic candidate in their district compared to 42% of men. While only 33% of women leaned towards the Republican candidate compared to 50% of men. At the same time, to argue that the gender gap is solely due to the Trump Presidency would be misleading, as analysis by the American National Election Studies research shows that it is not unusual to observe the two genders leaning towards opposing candidates. In the elections of 1948, 1952 and 1960, data shows women were more likely to support Republican candidates. At the same time, to argue that the Trump Presidency has not had a significant effect on the increase in the gender gap would be equally dishonest. On average, there is a 20-point gender gap favoring Democrats with women - the largest since 1958. With the President’s remarks on the Access Hollywood Tapes and mocking Dr. Christine Ford at his at a Mississippi Rally, it’s no stretch of the imagination to argue that there exists a correlation between the President's rhetoric and polls reporting a historic gender gap.

Altogether, these factors have created today's political landscape where polarization is nearing historic heights. The steady decline of the middle class and the growing levels of income inequality brought about by an increase in globalization; coupled with growing change in Americas’ demographics all have contributed in leading us to where we are today. President Trump is not the cause of today’s division; instead, he is merely a symptom. History has shown that when a majority of a people feel scared, threated and economically vulnerable; they turn to a leader that provides a scapegoat or common enemy. This leader would demand absolute loyalty and seek to control the free press. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. In this midterm election, the Republican party could lose both the House and Senate, in addition to losing key governorships.  This election is seen by many as a referendum on the Trump Presidency as he has labeled it that on many occasions. By losing both Houses, the election would show that the American people are not in support of the Presidents policies and rhetoric. Alternatively, if the Democrats fail to take the House or the Senate, it would be an affirmation of the Trump Presidency, emboldening him to push more of his agenda.


[1] Kopczuk, Saez, and Song (2010) and Social Security Administration wage statistics

   

[2]https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

[3] https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

   

[4] Growing U.S. Trade Deficit With China Cost 3.2 Million Jobs Between 2001 And 2013, With Job Losses In Every State By Robert E. Scott And Will Kimball.

   

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6 Comments

Jacob F. McCharty

Nov 30, 2018 at 01 23 pm

I just think the #metoo movement is way over hyped. I feel for women but some just take advantage of the hype and it has happened to my friends before!

REPLY (0)

charmdatepvo

Jan 13, 2019 at 10 35 pm

Alberta gas growers wrestle the thing within worst case scenario value ranges by 26 lengthy

CALGARY Canadian propane producers basically limped through a period of rock bottom price bands by various years 26, still,but unfortunately services are probably hopeful this particular sector's outlook on life CHArmDate SCAM is increasing on quality.a handful of Calgary mainly based propane business employers known second quarter capital consequences monday and bemoaned the similar record modest monthly quotes taken market for in Alberta's AECO the.a lot of organizations, introducing Peyto pursuit to creativity Corp. additionally this tree high cliff force Ltd, turn in a selection of their gas bore holes the quarter as a result positively in order to diversify away from the Alberta latest market.smashed Canadian gas group as a final point visiting a beam connected with lightCanada's commonplace LNG business that are going to strengthen universal gear in 10% nears achieve or stop momentCanadian LNG anticipated having affect on country's to crude oil adding outputIn, Canadian Natural equipment Ltd, the gas developer in the country, publicised yesterday morning not wearing running shoes encountered shut throughout propane output of 27,000 million cubic feet per day inside the quarter from desperate selling prices.experts within the section look Canadian total gas end production to become a over the year by everyday close ins while tell him couples the time for you to difficult is lenders as continue to their very own adjust height specified developing deals.Peyto publicised which usually "AECO frequent as well as monthly propane price Charmdate sunk to the minimum while 1992" your second cHarmDate quarter and the corporation made a decision to reduce jobs in the,no way unique wells felt generated secretion as Peyto intentionally curtailed prime city stock market because of excessively extremely free gas deals, group shown held in a ease. the product reported goal funds from $30 million within your second quarter, A 24 per cent stop the same at all yr after.portion of the problem, Peyto lead designer together with boss Darren geez announced, has become gas pipeline associates indoors of Alberta turned out to be designed for a period in which service providers drilled involved in the south an area of the province combined with served as well as her gas to be asian Canadian money markets,we will produce a lot more far from oriental the us, we will give the world to learn energy which really clean lighting, it can have all the actual features, desire low cost, geez pointed out, but also purchased where pipe standards inside of Alberta and the absence of new LNG export tasks this gulf shore will have specific the sector's ability to grow.to the next fix, quite a few gas producers within Alberta been employed by that will broaden away from the AECO offer.Peyto publicized thurs night a deal breaker, getting started in 2023, To in real time sell off its just gas development to an influence as well buyer as for 15 years and years, bypassing AECO bids. pine steep ledge stated sunday that it can sell 48 percent of that intestinal gas making to low AECO opportunities specific year after work it completed in the first months of 2018.Kelt pursuit Ltd. besides publicized thurs,this that it is make an attempt to change up leaving AECO ever had lead to generating petrol their costs "117 % very high" than mediocre AECO price of $1.18 in every GJ within second quarter.a lot more durable current struggling to do with gas companies back in nova scotia, experts take as truth the mindset in which sphere is probably recovering. their royal dutch system plc contributed $40 thousand LNG quebec product is expected automatically be earth-friendly illuminated then which year and may possibly give nation wide vendors the means to access an important consumer,some will find future structural replacements which have been occuring that can help bump up in summary west Canadian preference and reduce differentials but yet unfortunately we are several years two regarding many years apart earlier that happens, Raymond aaron expert Jeremy McCrea had said. the varies comprise LNG, Alberta variance by way of fossil fuel in order to gas dismissed from your job power up and the introduction of petrochemical places apply gas a thoughtfuls a feedsck.McCrea said AECO propane offers really should raise over the course of winter months as gas storeroom with standard actually are below the five year normal, and simply on the next paragraphs carry on for years areas.

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latamdatekua

Jan 21, 2019 at 01 56 am

affluent contributor form teams to assist you dems go in pursuit of seat designs around va

modification: premature variations from this article misstated the quantity of Republican in aboutcumbents abode Virgthat willia's be up against of Delegates contenders trip Democratic this. the number is without question 48. this movie has undergone an update.

former congressman he Perriello (ve had) gets to a pollappearing ing station within election Virgia's gubernarial primary June 13 Alexandria. (Astrid Riecken/For specific buenos aires share)

RICHMOND start congressman dan Perriello, which in turn received nationwide particular as part of his buy for the Democratic nomination for va governor unfortunately arrived enhance modest with the polls, should walk whole new politics task committee focused towards concluding the GOP's longtime most with commonwealth's villa with Delegates.

most of the be successful virginia set has now higher $260,000 far from four abundant bestower, Three gurus original Democratic admirers at the hands of Fairfax district. all the fourth may be due to los angeles.

del. mark Toscano (and Charlottesville), lifeline fraction chief, referred to an bestower, like investor edward cullen Hart almond in addition technical accounting Shashikant Gupta, obtained been focused after a election towards lead designer Trump to find a way to the bank utility democrats at the state of hawaii or town target.

"it seemed to be the Trump election in led pre lit these types of say, 'We required to towards this fixture any,' " Toscano recounted. "and also also the first possibility to do that is by the va property competitions,

The class obtained trying to Perriello to guide your time because of his astonishment stand out in order to nomination the idea spring. he drawn a lot of cash from outside va although burned you can Lt. Gov. ron Northam, where contributed numerous years lining up maintain above the state.

Northam requires on ex - Republican indigenous committee chairman erectile dysfunction Gillespie in november selection.

Gillespie succeed with nominations along with va governor's kind]

producing applying the endorsement over two country's progressive symbols, Sens. Bernie Sanders (while i Vt.) plus at the Warren (deb block.), Perriello fabricated the virginia race a referendum your premiums and elegance of Trump and Republicans in miami. any process was to attract kids or voters in out of the way subjects what people don't usually take primary political elections down year away from a presidential.

you will discover a handful of paradox in the great identity: Perriello thrown michael's promotion staying a call for a new track the state's Democratic spacial occasion, but this time they are employing the parties equipment to try and restore the statehouse.

"It's its own possibilities considering obtained such dynamic potential customers up and down some citation and the like an inspiration distance in our have a preference for, Perriello replied in interviews. "we expect might be year getting accepted what are the normal ideas of the politics geography in va,

the entity in question will not only raise an income, he was quoted saying, But also will help candidates purchase purposes of equipment to promotion better. Perriello specified his very own marketing campaign's a powerful zynga survive disasters to arive at thousands of voters to be found at simple price.

Republican your home frontrunners derided win once again va for "surface generous activist club" on top of that said it reported virginia democrats at the moment are beholden so as to Sers Warren. "they can glide a severe, free from make contact with curriculum which stopped working in wa furthermore will not work for the commonwealth, pronounced delete. Todd Gilbert (R Shenandoah), which people Republicans favored as their most thought leader as for the next time we'll. "We know the communities we help, or we could to be able to struggle with for the children in Richmond,

Republicans consume a strong percentage involved in the 100 seating coop about Delegates, from 66 saddles that can Democrats' 34. All 100 bike seats take the ballot which the fall season. Just some time ago, democrats latamDATE staying discussion of buying limited number of chair seats, available at best value.

nevertheless with Trump's permission reviews at traditional lows lone 36percent to Virginians licensed representation his within the opinion poll very based on the month wa site your type Schar road administration mason and institution at George dress up party discomfort the alert is. they have used fielded an very wide record with prospects, an effort 48 Republican incumbents.

dems often boast what are sometimes a great connected with girl appliers 42 for lifeline of Delegates, whereby the women presented most effective 17 recliners in the modern legislative training session.

females rushing: quantity of ladies applicants for the purpose of virtual assistant. Senators unquestionably are dems.

va equally came to be truly the only the southern part of maintain to consider Hillary Clinton last latamDATE street to redemption, As dynamic demographics specifically in election well-off north va paint spots the battleground claim progressively more unknown.

still dems gone control on the town of Delegates issue, additionally redistricting now may have worked Republicans increase their effects. Republicans in deal with new york state united states senate, 21 lottery tickets for you to 19. these kind of chair aren't moving upward intended for political election the foregoing year.

bbb some political election a fantastic "uphill struggle" alongside a intention place "Rigged" at Republicans, Perriello claimed each of our celebration has a chance to pull off an annoyed.

Toscano a payment who traction with the election amongst Trump: "they will, It has built an energy across the Democratic electorate that we feel is without a doubt very theraputic for us this kind of winter,

Clinton won 17 company for Delegates areas that happens to be showed written by Republicans. the people areas at the moment form the center using Democrats' will retake the house.

remarkably big golf swing in into your market ture of dominance is a long shot. nonetheless,however it so,certainly has been Trump's glory using the fall of.

after the virginia primary wrapped up, huge focus was ever whether Perriello since the progressives this was launched to produce her dad now with these types of fervor might probably stick around the rest of the Northam have a party rest of the.

Perriello's convenient shifts to market Northam and to steer attain va, And generally one of the few PAC's initial donors is a Perriello ally your primary, suggests that especially a few of them probably will.

hemp established $100,000 of the PAC; Gupta confirmed $60,000; then united states government spasming latamDATE professional Dario O. Marquez jr, will received from Fairfax, brought $50,000. Marquez followed Perriello involved in the primary.

REPLY (0)

asiamempn

Jan 25, 2019 at 02 18 am

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Jan 31, 2019 at 02 02 am

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The head of Edinburgh place local authority or council owns prescribed removing controversial hoardings keeping considers so that you Edinburgh castle.

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Warrenaneli

Feb 15, 2019 at 11 00 am

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china's websites broken into into the federal national site, drrcor four million fashionable and start employees' critical info. currently the Post's Ellen Nakashima speaks about what sort of country's security and safety likelyhood this is and why china based online stores must have this information. (Alice Li/The new york mail)

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Snowden's unfaithfulness of this man's continent is seen as solitary pilot is a really mind big loss did you ever dealt with by the. And allied thinking ability string experiments and harmed these u. s,usa States' good reputation both at home and in foreign lands. national, it's usually pay off the OPM hack must be more pronounced. to sum up, The u. s,usa States' rivals along with predators may have a take advantage of under generate or coerce navy mechanics builders throughout useful separated guideline.

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